Siege of Baghdad Prophecy
Considered by some to be one of Islam's most precise prophecies, the foretelling of the Mongol Siege of Baghdad stands out as an incredible piece of evidence for Islam. Over six centuries before it occurred, the Prophet Muhammad (ﷺ) described the rise of a great city. He spoke of its strategic riverside location, its bustling growth, and its tragic fall at the hands of a distinct people known for their broad faces and small eyes - a clear reference to the Mongols.
When people think of the relationship between the Muslims and the Mongols, there is rarely anything positive to say. The Mongols were brutal in their oppression towards anybody who resisted their rule and abuse. This, of course, has led to bitterness from many of their subjects. Although three out of the four Mongol successor states ended up embracing Islam, this brutal image and bitterness remains.
One of the most infamous clashes between the Muslims and the Mongols was the Siege of Baghdad, which happened on 1258 AD, when the Mongols sacked the city of Baghdad and slaughtered almost every inhabitant of the historically rich city. This massacre is seen by many to have been the end of the Islamic Golden Age. What is not very well known, however, is that this sacking of Baghdad was prophesied by the Prophet Muhammad (ﷺ) over 600 years before it happened.
Introduction to the Prophecy
The Prophet (ﷺ) said:
“Some of my people will descend onto low-lying ground they will call al-Basrah, beside a river called [the Tigris river] over which there will be a bridge. Its people will be numerous and it will be one of the capital cities of the Muslims. At the end of times, the descendants of Qantura’ will come with broad faces and small eyes, descending on the bank of the river.
The towns inhabitants will then split into three sections: One which will follow cattle into the desert and perish; another which will seek security for themselves and perish; while the third will put their children on their backs and fight the invaders, and they will be the martyrs.” [1].
There is one thing to note here as well, which is that the Arabic word for “perish” in the line “another which will seek security for themselves and perish” is Kafaru (كَفَرُوا), which can also mean “disbelieve”. This means that those that seek security for themselves either end up dying or disbelieving. Both meanings are correct, as the only people who were spared were Christians and Rafidha like Nasir ad-Din at-Tusi.
Birds-eye representation of Baghdad during the siege. [2]
Breaking Down the Details
The details are specific and numerous, so breaking it down will make things easier to understand. They are as follows:
This will take place on low-lying ground called al-Basrah by the people.
It will take place next to the Tigris river.
There will be a bridge over the Tigris river at this point.
The city will be a capital city for the Muslims.
This cities residents will be numerous (i.e. large in number).
This city will be invaded by the descendants of Qantura’, who are people described as having broad faces and small eyes.
The final section of the prophecy heavily implies that the Muslims will lose and be slaughtered.
The point above comes from the fact that the inhabitants are split into three sections: one which escapes into the desert and perishes, another seeking security for themselves and perishing, and the final ones fighting and becoming martyrs. Notice how the groups that remained in the city end up dying in the city.
Finally, since no such city existed at the time, (A city next to the Tigris river, in an area called al-Basrah, having a large population, etc.) it means that the final point is:
A new city will be created near the Tigris river by the Muslims; this city will become a capital city for them, eventually growing to have a large number of inhabitants.
Its amazing how much detail there is in this prophecy.
Fulfillment of the Prophecy
Those who already know about the Mongol Siege of Baghdad and its historical context will look at the bullet-points above and immediately be able to tell that every detail applies to this event. Let’s go through it point-by-point.
A new city will be created near the Tigris river by the Muslims; this city will become a capital city for them, eventually growing to have a large number of inhabitants.
The only city this could be is Baghdad. It was founded in the year 762 CE as the capital of the Abbasid Caliphate, and eventually grew to become one of the largest centers of knowledge and one of the largest cities in the world at the time due to its strategic location and geography. Its difficult to underestimate the importance of this city, as its cited by some to be the reason for the centuries-long Islamic Golden Age.
As a consequence, the city’s population skyrocketed, and by some estimates was the first city in history to reach over a million residents. [3]
This will take place on low-lying ground called al-Basrah by the people.
Abu Dawud quotes an isnad reaching al-Ashraf where he says that:
“… close to the gates [of Baghdad] is an area called Bab al-Basrah… (meaning: The Door/Gate of al-Basrah)” [4].
A question may arise of why it was named by a part of the city instead of naming its whole. This seems to be similar to how we would speak about an event that happened in one of the New York boroughs, like Manhattan or the Bronx, even if the event affected the entirety of New York. Due to the massive size of Baghdad for its time, there were enough people that each section was distinct from the other, similar to the boroughs. If one looks at history before the destruction of Baghdad, they speak about these gates as people talk about New York boroughs today, emphasizing that the city was large enough that such a distinction was necessary and significant.
For example, in adh-Dhahabis Tarikh al-Islam, it speaks about an event before the Siege of Baghdad and titles it as: “الفتنة بين أهل الكرخ وباب البصرة”, or “The fitnah between the people of Bab al-Karkh (another gate) and Bab al-Basrah:”. If the gates were just considered gates, and these names were not commonly used or considered to describe areas of Baghdad, then there would be no need for this distinction between the two groups of inhabitants. Since this shows that these names were used and considered to describe areas of Baghdad, the wording of the Hadith accurately applies to the city of Baghdad.
It will take place next to the Tigris river.
A portion of the river is contained within the borders of Baghdad. See the above image.
There will be a bridge over the Tigris river at this point.
Due to the city containing a portion of the river within its borders, a bridge was built to connect the two portions of the city to one another. See the above image.
The city will be a capital city for the Muslims and,
This cities inhabitants will be numerous (i.e. large in number).
These two details are explained in the first point.
Left: Mongol child. Right: Gobid phenotype, most typical in Mongolians and some other Central Asians. Directly described as having a “broad face”.
This city will be invaded by the descendants of Qantura’, who are people described as having broad faces and small eyes.
Surprisingly, the prophecy even states the ethnicity of the invaders and what they look like. This exactly describes the Mongol phenotype, as they are a Central Asian people with broad faces and small eyes. Of course, the Mongol empire was ruled by the Mongolian people.
The final section heavily implies that the Muslims will lose and be slaughtered.
The Mongols built walls around the city during their attack, and this was for two reasons: one, to protect their siege engines and secondly, to prevent any defenders from escaping and surviving. Once they entered the city, they killed everyone they could find and nobody was spared, except for the Christians and people who were working with the Mongols to begin with, like at-Tusi.
This is almost universally considered when the Islamic Golden Age ended, as the historical capital city of Baghdad with over a million inhabitants was completely destroyed and depopulated. Baghdad, and the Muslims as a whole, would never fully recover from this.
As we can see, the hadith contains a prophecy so specific that it could not be mistaken for any event other than the Mongol Siege of Baghdad.
The Prophet (ﷺ) foretold the creation of a Muslim capital city on the Tigris river, which would eventually become the largest city in history at the time. He foretold the name given to its area, the race and characteristics of those who will invade it, and the fate of the city. He even went as far as to detail there being a bridge over the Tigris at the point where all of this would occur. All being fulfilled exactly as described 600 years after the prediction was made, the evidence speaks for itself.
This cannot be from anyone except someone who was given knowledge of the unseen, a true prophet of God.
References:
See: Tertius Chandler's Four Thousand Years of Urban Growth: An Historical Census. Link to second-hand article.
